Lotto Max: Why Only 49 Maxmillions Drawings?

Introduction
The most attractive aspect of the Lotto Max game is the MAXMILLIONS feature which is triggered when the Jackpot pool exceeds the C$50 million cap. For each million above that level, a separate Maxmillions number is drawn, thus giving multiple players the opportunity to win (or share) additional C$1M prizes as well. Therefore, it is no wonder that Canadian lottery players flocked to the game the past few weeks. With the advertised prizes of:

C$50 Million + 55 Maxmillions

for the June 25, 2010 drawing, tickets were selling at an unprecedented pace.

However, you can imagine the disappointment players experienced when only 49 MAXMILLIONS results were posted.

What happened to the remaining 6 

advertised Maxmillions numbers?

This post examines this question and attempts to provide answers to the bewildered population.

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Why Disappointment?
When a product is advertised, the purchasing public expects the seller to truthful in the product description and trusts that the product will be delivered as described. The advertised June 25th Lotto Max prize offerings were C$50M + 55 Maxmillions. However, only 49 Maxmillions were delivered. That's a difference of C$6 million and represents a large amount of money.

Additionally, the missing 6 Maxmillions numbers represented the opportunity for 6 more players to win a million dollars. By not delivering as advertised, opportunities were lost and dreams denied.

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Money Was Available for 55 Maxmillions on June 25th
The table below summarizes the Lotto Max money raised and paid out during the previous cycle. As shown, the advertised jackpot began at C$10M on April 30th and continued to grow until the C$50M cap was reached on June 4th. Thereafter, the jackpot remained constant and estimated Maxmillions offerings appeared from June 11th onward. Below that are: the 7/7 jackpot prize carry over amounts; the current drawing 7/7 prize pool; and the 6/7+bonus prize pools. These three rows are added together to determine the actual amount of money available to be paid out in that drawing. From the cash available, jackpot and the net Maxmillions payouts are deducted, thus determining the 7/7 money pool to be carried forward to the next drawing.

Table LM-1: Lotto Max Cash Raised and Paid
	Drawing	4/30	5/7	5/14	5/21	5/28	6/4	6/11	6/18	6/25	7/2
Advertised	Jackpot	10.0	15.0	20.0	30.0	40.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	30.0
	Maxmillions	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.0	45.0	55.0	0.0
Carry Over	Jackpot	10.0	15.7	21.3	27.9	36.0	46.0	62.8	72.0	75.9	31.1
	7/7 Pool	5.7	5.6	6.3	8.1	10.0	17.8	24.3	33.9	34.2	n/a
	6/7+Bonus	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	n/a
Cash	Available	15.7	21.3	27.9	36.0	46.0	63.8	87.0	105.9	110.1	n/a
Paid	Jackpot	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0	n/a
Offered	MaxMillions	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	27.0	45.0	49.0	0.0
Not Paid	MaxMillions	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.0	12.0	15.0	20.0	0.0
Carry Over	to Next Dwg	15.7	21.3	27.9	36.0	46.0	62.8	72.0	75.9	31.1	n/a

As shown, there was C$110.1 million available for Jackpot and Maxmillions winnings in the June 25th drawing. This amount exceeded the advertised C$50M+55 Maximillions by over C$5 million.

However, the Lotto Max organization reduced the Maxmillions drawings by C$6 million, even though money was available. This does not seem like a rational decision since it had previously increased the Maxmillions offerings in the June 4th and 11th (shown in red).

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Why was the Maxmillions Reduced?
Realizing that Lotto Max had money to payout the additional C$6 Maxmillions, we have theorized 4 possible reasons:

1. Computer Error: The Lotto Max Game Conditions state: "and ILC will cause, immediately after the Main Draw, at least as many series of seven numbers (being seven different numbers) to be drawn at random from among all numbers from 1 to 49 (each such series of seven numbers is a "Special Series") as there are tranches of $1,000,000 in ..."  Perhaps this statement was misunderstood and the program that selects the Maxmillions drawings was erroneously written to stop at 49 drawings.
2. Duplicate Numbers Selected: Continuing on the above quote, perhaps 55 Maxmillions drawings were generated, but 6 of those resulted in duplicate numbers, and were therefore rejected.
3. Inflate Jackpot for Next Drawing: Lotto Max tickets sell when the jackpot is higher. By reducing the number of Maxmillions offerings, the additional C$6 million was intentionally used to help begin the next drawing sequence at C$30 million.
4. Estimation Error: The Lotto Max organization has tried to explain that all jackpot offerings are estimates. When revenue does not perform as projected, the estimates need to be revised upward or downward. After a review the Table above, it seems unlikely that irrational estimates were forecast.

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Conclusion
Having summarized the past 9 jackpot drawings, and understanding the results, we remain convinced that Lotto Max should have delivered the full 55 MAXMILLIONS drawings as advertised throughout the week prior to the June 25th drawing. Not delivering as advertised, players may become reluctant to spend C$5 for a ticket because they have lost confidence in the Lotto Max organization.

However, we do not believe that Lotto Max acted maliciously, nor did it attempt to retain income as a hidden profit. All money collected has been allocated back to the players, but not in the sequence as expected.

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Reference
All information derived in this article were obtained from the Canadian Lottery sites:

• ILC Lotto Max Game Conditions
• How to Play Lotto Max 

Maxmillions Discrepancy to be Described Tomorrow.

Like many people, we have wondered why there were only 49 Maxmillions drawings in the last Lotto Max drawing when 55 were advertised. To help understand this discrepancy, we evaluated the all payout results since April 30th, when the jackpot offering began at C$10 million.

What we discovered is that all monies have been reallocated back to the players, but not as expected using the Official Lotto Max Game Conditions.

At present, we anticipate publishing our results on this blog tomorrow. In it we will explain how the jackpot has grown in comparison to the written rules.

We have observed a few instances of apparent prize payout misappropriations which we cannot explain. Similiarly, we theorized why the Maxmillions drawing stopped at 49 and why the next Jackpot offering is set at $30 million.

As you can understand, we are cautious in summarizing the past 9 drawing sequences. Thus, it is important to verify our results once again prior to distributing our conclusions.

Lotto Max Hysteria Continues

There was no Lotto Max $50 million jackpot winner in last week's drawing, so this Friday's June 25th Lotto Max jackpot is $50 million plus $55 Maxmillions.

That means 56 possible new millionaires!

And naturally, Lotto Max Mania continues to roll through the country.

Using the past two estimated ticket sales for this weeks projections, we expect:

• A 25% chance of no Jackpot winner again.
• Of the 55 Maxmillions drawings, about 13 will not have a winner, 6 will have three or more winners, 24 will have two winners, and 12 will have single winners.
• Nearly 200 million combinations will be sold.

Considering that there are only 604,800 seconds in seven days (the time between drawings), more than 300 combinations will be randomly generated each second. And knowing that most random number generators rely on a seed time to start, there is a good possibility that many of these numbers may be duplicates.

But who cares. With so many top prizes being offered, you've got to give it a try.

If you live in or around Canada,

Play Lotto Max Now.

We're crossing our fingers for you!

Lotto Max Mania Sweeping through Canada

With this Friday's June 11th Lotto Max jackpot offering of $50 million and $45 Maxmillions, millionaire fever is spreading through Canada like an uncontrollable epidemic. And it should!

Even though Lotto Max tickets cost C$5 for 3 combinations,

Should you buy one or more Tickets?

Absolutely Yes!

Considering an estimated population of approximately 25 million who are 20 years and older, there is a good likelihood that 1 in every 500,000 to 1,000,000 people will become overnight millionaires.

Based on last weeks results, we project that at least 30 million tickets will be sold generating approx 90 million combinations, exceeding the mathematical 85.9 million possible combinations.

Of these, we expect to see at least 10% duplicate numbers. This means that there is a 10% possibility that the primary $50 million jackpot will not be won.

In either case, 45 more Max Millions numbers will be drawn, but only 5-10 will not produce a winner. The other 35-40 will have one or more matching tickets!

So if you've ever dreamed of being a Millionaire,

Go for it Now.

With jackpot levels this high, this is the time to give your Luck a try.

Reminder: Friday will be the last Super 7 drawing

The last Canadian Super 7 Lottery drawing will be held this coming Friday, September 18, 2009, and all outstanding prizes will be awarded. The current jackpot is C$21 million. If it is not won, the jackpot prize pool will roll down to the lower tier prizes. And, all Free tickets will be cashed out for C$2.00 each.

So make sure to play this final week, since higher prizes may be awarded to all lower tiers. You will have 1 year to redeem your prize winnings, so don't misplace your tickets.

Then, beginning Saturday, the 19th, tickets for the newly launched Lotto Max will go on sale.

Lottery Power Picks considers this Game to be "Super 7" format change, so we will maintain continuous coverage of this new Lottery including History, Hot/Cold Analysis, and more.

Cheers & Good Luck to All,

JL.............

Lotto Max Analysis - When to Play Guide

Introduction
Lotto Max is a new Friday night Canadian lottery being launched on Saturday, September 19, 2009. The game offers players the chance to win a Jackpot prize ranging from C$10 to C$50 million. And, once the jackpot reaches and exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for every additional C$1 Million above the C$50M cap. The single prize of these additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be fixed at C$1 million. Like all other lotteries, a player must correctly match each of the white balls to win the Lotto Max or MAXMILLIONS jackpot (bonus balls are excluded).

Lotto Max is essentially a Super 7 makeover with a slight format change.

• Player required to select and match 7 white balls.
  
• White balls increased from 47 to 49
• Bonus ball prizes still awarded when matching 6 white or 3 white balls plus bonus ball
  
• Minimum Jackpot C$10 million
• Maximum Jackpot C$50 million
• When Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, additional MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted
• Prize winning award structure same as Super 7
• Most lower tier prizes are doubled in size.

Wow, sounds Great! So what's the catch?

The cost! Lotto Max tickets cost C$5 each for 3 combinations, This is 2 1/2 times more than Super 7. But, the Lotto Max organizers will argue, the minimum jackpot of C$10M is 4 times larger than the old Super 7 minimum.

Considering the fact that the Jackpot and prizes increased, players must question:

Should I really spend C$5 for 3 combinations?
Or, should I stick with 649 or the regional lotteries?

We found that the Correct Answer is:
You Should Do Both
depending on
the sizes of the Lotto Max and competing jackpots.

The following explains our advice.

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Lotto Max Basic Returns
In Lotto Max, a player is required to pick 7 numbers from a set of 49 white balls. There are 85,900,584 combinations. The tickets are packaged as 3 selections for C$5, meaning a single combination costs C$1.666 each. Assuming a that all combinations are sold and there are no duplicates, a total of C$143,167,640 will be received. When the Jackpot is set at the advertised C$10 million minimum, Lotto Max will pay out C$49,723,431 back to the players. By dividing the the C$49.7M by C$143.2 received, we obtain a return of C$0.3473 per C$1 spent.

When the Jackpot increases by C$1 million, the return to players will increase by C$0.00698. For example: when the jackpot is C$20M, the return is C$0.4172; and, when the jackpot is C$50M, the return is $0.6267.

Even when Lotto Max goes into MAXMILLIONS mode, the return to the players remains linear. This is because return only compares money paid verses money received. Accordingly: when the jackpot is C$60M, the return is C$0.6966; and, when the jackpot is C$100M, the return is $0.9759.

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Visualizing Return
It is often helpful to visualize the returns of various lotteries. The Graph LM-GR01 below illustrates the implied returns of Lotto Max, Lotto 649, and the Old Super 7.




There are a few things to note from this graph:

• the old Super 7 format always returned more money than the newly created Lotto Max
• the increase in Lotto Max return is vary flat
• the Lotto Max return intersects Lotto 649 at approximately C$2.5M
  

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Utilizing Return
By understanding the implied return of various lotteries, we are able to utilize this linear function to compare different lotteries with varying formats. This can be done because return is always stated in a per $ basis.

Lottery players in Canada who wish to win C$1 million or more have three choices. They can play:

1. Lotto Max, with a minimum jackpot of C$10M
2. Lotto 649, with a minimum jackpot of C$3M
3. Provincial lottery, with a fixed jackpot of C$1M or C$2M depending on where they live

Those who on limited budgets, or who wish to acheive the greatest possibility of winning should know which lottery offers the best return for their playing dollars.

The illustrations below tell you when you should buy Lotto Max, Lotto 649, or the Regionals.

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Buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649?
There are two difficulties when deciding whether to buy Lotto Max or Lotto 649 tickets

1. The Jackpots sizes are vastly different magnitudes ( C$2.5M vs C$10.0M )
2. The Jackpots of each vary
   

The graph below identifies when you are better off buying Lotto Max or 649 tickets.



Graph LM-GR02 shows Lotto Max (LM) jackpots ranging from C$10M to C$100M. Beneath these, are corresponding Lotto 649 (L649) jackpot levels. These thresholds should be used to determine which game to play.

For example, assume that the Lotto Max jackpot is C$10M. If the Lotto 649 jackpot is below C$3.8M, then you should play Lotto Max; if 649 is above C$3.8M then play Lotto 649. (corrected)

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Buy Lotto Max or Regionals?
A second choice Canadian lottery players have is whether it is better to buy Lotto Max tickets or their regional provincial game. In the Atlantic, Ontario, and Western 49 games, tickets only cost C$0.50 each but the jackpot is fixed at C$1 million. In British Columbia and Quebec, tickets sell for C$1.00 and the jackpots are fixed at C$2 million.

However, because the populations are limited, the Canadian Lottery is more liberal with its income, and returns more of its intake back to the players.

Compared to Lotto Max, the regionals are more attractive in all cases.




For each of these, Graph LM-GR03 above illustrates the Jackpot level that Lotto Max must reach for the player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto Max is below $40.2M
• BC49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto Max is below $31.8M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto Max is below $28.6M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto Max is below $53.9M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently large enough for wise players to generally favor and play the regional game rather than Lotto Max.

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Buy Lotto 649 or Regionals?
By comparison, Lotto 649 is a nationwide game whose format is nearly identical to the regionals. In all, the number of combinations are identical, fixed at 13,983,816.

The main difference is that Lotto 649 jackpots can grow. By calculating the implied breakeven returns, we identify much lower Lotto 649 thresholds.



The above Graph LM-GR04 shows the Jackpot level that Lotto 649 must reach for a player to be indifferent to either game.

As shown, players should purchase:

• Atl 49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $9.7M
• BC49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• LQ49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $8.1M
• Ont49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $7.5M
• Wst49 whenever Lotto 649 is below $12.4M

We believe these these breakeven jackpot levels are sufficiently low enough for players to be continually interested in both games.

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What about the MAXMILLIONS Mode?
One of the unique features of Lotto Max is its MAXMILLIONS mode. This kicks in whenever the Jackpot pool exceeds C$50M. When in effect, the Lotto Max jackpot becomes capped at $50M, and numerous MAXMILLIONS drawings will be conducted for a single prize of C$1 million each. This means that if the pool is C$60M, there will be 10 MAXMILLIONS drawings. If the pool is C$100M, there will be 50 MAXMILLIONS drawings.

The advertised importance of this mode is that whenever the jackpot pool exceeds C$50M, there is a possibility of having many C$1 million winners and a large Lotto Max jackpot winner all at once.

But as noted earlier, having more winners does not affect our return calculations.

It does, however, lower the Odds or Changes of winning. But, this change in odds is so small, it can effectively be ignored :

• Jackpot C$10-C$60M: Odds are 19.8031
• Jackpot C$70-C$90M: Odds are 19.8030
• Jackpot C$100-C$110M: Odds are 19.8029

Notice that only the 4th decimal place varies, and that from C$10M to C$100M, your chances of winning any prize increase by only 2/10,000.

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Conclusion

Whether you should buy and play the new Lotto Max lottery depends on your budget and willingness to play.

Since the chances of winning any jackpot prize is extremely small, we believe players should always play the game that promises to offer the fairest return for your hard earned dollar.

The above information provides you with the educational knowledge of making a sound decision. From this, we conclude that:

Canadian Provincial Lotteries offer the best per dollar return,
and
Buy Lotto Max only when jackpots are high!

Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Canadian Lottery Comparison
• Lotto Max - Complete Odds & Return
• Introducing LOTTO MAX Announcement

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Stumble It!

Stay Tuned - Our Lotto Max Analysis to be Published Next Week

Tickets for the new Canadian Lotto Max lottery will go on sale beginning Saturday, September 19th 2009 and the first drawing will be held the following Friday (September 25th).

This new lottery replaces Super 7 which will be retired after the Friday Sept 18 drawing.

Essentially, Lotto Max is a weekly game nearly identical to Super 7. To win, the player must successfully match 7 balls. However, the major differences are that: the number of white balls increased to 49; jackpots begin at C$10 million; tickets cost C$5 for three; the jackpot is capped at C$50M; and above $C50M, additional MAXMILLION C$1 million drawings will be conducted for each million above the C$50M threshold.

In the spirit of offering our players the most comprehensive information, we are preparing a new Blog Post comparing Lotto Max to the old Super 7 and Lotto 649. We believe this is important because the cost of tickets and the chances of actually winning have substantially increased.

While many news releases are currently circulating about this new game, we have found little definitive opinions about whether you should or should not purchase tickets and play it.

We anticipate publishing our analysis by the end of next week so stay tuned!

JL........

Goodbye Super 7, Hello LOTTO MAX

Beginning Saturday, September 19 2009, tickets for the new Canadian multi-provincial game LOTTO MAX will go on sale. The first drawing for this new weekly game will be on Friday, September 25th. And, the minimum jackpot prize is C$10 million, but is capped at C$50 million. Above C$50M, seperate drawings for a single C$1 million prize will be conducted. This feature is called MAXMILLONS, and for every C$1M over C$50M, a seperate drawing will be held. That could be a lot of drawings!

This new game replaces the existing Super 7 game held every Friday night, and it promises to payout bigger prizes.

LOTTO MAX is very similar to Super 7 in that a player must correctly pick 7 white balls to win the jackpot. An eighth bonus ball is also drawn, and used for awarding 2nd (6 white+bonus) and 6th place (3 white+bonus) prizes.

However, bigger prizes come with a price. In LOTTO MAX's case, its C$5 minimum per play. Yes, each player must purchase 3 combinations for C$5 each (which is 2 1/2 times the cost of the Super 7 tickets).

Also, the number of white balls increases from 47 to 49, thus making it a bit harder to win.

As for us, we are busy creating our statistical pages for this new lottery, and beginning to construct histories of the smaller and more affordable individual provincial lotteries (BC 49, Atlantic 49, etc)

Since it is nearly identical to Super 7, we are simply considering it to be a Super 7 format and name changes for analytical purposes.

JL..........