A Revised Look at the Mega Millions Megaplier Option

Introduction
When the Mega Millions and Powerball lotteries began cross selling in the previous proprietary States in early 2010, the Megaplier Option was immediately available in the original Powerball states. This has been a popular option to increase prize payouts especially when the Jackpot prizes were low. To help stimulate even more interest, Powerball established a fixed $1 million second place prize for those players who bought the Powerplay. This change helped to increase sales of this option.

To keep pace, Mega Million states pushed to implement the Megaplier. More importantly, the Megaplier second place prize was also increased to a guaranteed $1 million as well. At the time of this writing, nearly every state that sells Mega Millions tickets now offers the Megaplier Option with a fixed $1M prize for those fortunate to match all 5 of the white balls, but not the Megaball.

Thanks to a comment written by an Anonymous author, we were alerted to the recent prize structure change. This post provides the an up-to-date revision of our original Megaplier research post written in December 20007 entitled Should You Buy the Power Play, Sizzler, or Megaplier?

As Mega Million lottery interest has grown since the January 2011 record Jackpot of $355 milllion, many players continue to ask:

Should I Buy the Megaplier Option?

As originally advised,
The correct answer remains both Yes and No!
It depends on the size of the Jackpot,
And Your Strategy.

How would you know when to buy it?
If your lottery playing strategy is to win the Jackpot, we advise that you always buy the Megaplier option whenever the current jackpot value is below its Jackpot Breakeven level.

• For Mega Millions, Breakeven is now $53.1 million: Buy the Megaplier Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.

However, if you strategy is to maximize your prize winnings by religiously playing a consistent set of  numbers, we recommend that you always buy the Megaplier.


Effect of Change?
Because the 2nd place prize is now always fixed, the amount of money returned to Megaplier players has also increased. The net effect of this increase means that the Mega Millions breakeven has increased by $5.9 million from $47.2M to $53.1M.

Note, however, that as the Jackpot increases above its minimum, only the probability weighted amount of jackpot money returned to players increases. This means that all other prize payouts are fixed. Thus, there is always a fixed point (jackpot level) at which the return of single ticket payouts equals the return of the Megaplier ticket payouts.

As lottery players, we want to play the option that returns the most money back to us, the players. As you will see below, your option changes depending on the jackpot level.

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Mega Millions Megaplier
When a player buys the Megaplier option, all  prizes that the player wins, except the Jackpot, will be multiplied by either 2, 3, or 4, depending on what Megaplier was selected. Additionally, the new rules fix the 2nd place prize Megaplier multiplier at 4, regardless of what was picked. This means that the top non-jackpot prize for matching 5 white balls is always $1,000,000. Accounting for this new change, the probability weighted average of all other non-jackpot prizes remains at a multiplier equal to 3.476 times.

Based on this information, the graph below illustrates both the expected Megaplier return (in blue) against the expected return of a single Mega Millions ticket without the Megaplier (in red).

When the jackpot is set to the minimum $12 million, Megaplier returns $0.367 (increased from $0.350) of each dollar received, compared to $0.250 for those without the option.

When the jackpot level reaches $53.1 million, both tickets with and without the Megaplier returns $0.484 of each dollar received. We refer to this $53.1 million as the Jackpot Breakeven level. (Note that previously, the breakeven return was $0.451 at a $47.2M level).

Above this breakeven level, tickets purchased without Megaplier return more to the players. When the jackpot grows to $90 million, $0.694 is returned to straight ticket holders compared to only $0.589 (previously $0.572) to those who bought the Megaplier.







Because the new Megaplier rule is now in effect in most Mega Millions states, the overall monetary return of money received has increased.

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Conclusion
We suggest that all lottery playersshould purchase Lottery Tickets like they would any other investment, and always seek the highest return on their dollars. Thus, when the Mega Millions jackpot is below $53.1 million, the Megaplier should be purchased. When the jackpot is above this level, never purchase the Megaplier. Go for the Jackpot instead.


Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Revised Mega Millions Megaplier Analysis (February 2011)
• Superceded Mega Millions Megaplier Analysis (Original)
• Powerball Power Play Analysis
• Hot Lotto Sizzler Analysis

Lottery Full Wheel Calculators Released

We are proud to announce that we have begun to roll out our new Full Wheel Payout Calculators for the following lotteries:

• Mega Millions Full Wheel Calculator
• Powerball Full Wheel Calculator
• Hot Lotto Full Wheel Calculator 

You can access these pages from the links above, from our Lottery Research Page, or the "Lottery Combo Tables" link on our Lottery Power Picks home page.

While we are still in the bug/shakeout mode, we have decided to provide these calculators to you in a phased mode.

The purpose of these pages are to help you, the lottery players, better understand how much money: it would cost you to purchase a full lottery wheel; you would win if any or all of your numbers were to appear in the associated lottery drawing; and, lastly, how much your profit or loss from that transaction was.

During the coming weeks, we will be testing these pages to make sure that everything works properly. We will also be expanding these pages to include all of our covered lotteries.

We hope this information is helpful and gives you more information about the financial risks associated with playing the large lottery games.

Should You Buy the Power Play, Sizzler, or Megaplier?

Introduction
Very often, someone asks me whether they should buy the Powerball Power Play Option. Not knowing the mathematical answer, my gut feeling was to tell them No. However, since one popular website encourages players to sign a petition to add a Megaplier Option to the Mega Millions lottery, I had my doubts. At present, the State of Texas offers this option. More recently, I read that Hot Lotto would be adding a Sizzler Option beginning in January 2008.

Realizing the importance of this topic, it was time to conduct research on this topic. What I learned is that for each of these three lottery options, the answer to the question:

Should I Buy the Power Play, Sizzler, or Megaplier?

The correct answer is both Yes and No!
It depends on the size of the Jackpot.

How do you know when to buy it?
You should always buy the multiplier option whenever the current jackpot value is below its Jackpot Breakeven level.

• For Powerball, Breakeven is $43.2 million: Buy the Power Play Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.
• For Hot Lotto, Breakeven is $2.59 million: Buy the Sizzler Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.
• For Mega Millions, Breakeven is $47.2 million: Buy the Megaplier Option whenever the Jackpot is below this value. Never above this. Buy 2 tickets instead.

Why is that?
The reason is that the Jackpot prizes in each of these lotteries are not multiplied. So, as the Jackpot increases above its minimum, only the probability weighted amount of jackpot money returned to players increases. At some point, which we call Jackpot Breakeven, the jackpot returns outweigh the sum of the payouts of all the other prizes. Once this is reached, buying the multiplier option is not a good investment. Remember, because the multiplier option costs $1 more, it is necessary to divide these probability weighted returns by 2 before comparing them to single $1 tickets. When the jackpot is above the breakeven level, the per dollar return of multiplier tickets becomes less and less valuable compared to that of a regular ticket.

As lottery players, we want to play the option that returns the most money back to us, the players. As you will see below, your option changes depending on the jackpot level.

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Powerball Power Play
When a player buys the Power Play option, any prize that the player wins, except the Jackpot, will be multiplied by either 2, 3, 4 or 5. The odds that any one of these multipliers will occur is (typically) a constant 25%, which means that a player can expect an average 3.5 times multiplier on average.

Based on this assumption, the graph below illustrates both the expected Power Play return (in blue) against the expected return of a single Ticket without the Power Play (in red).

When the jackpot is set to the minimum $15 million, Power Play returns $0.396 of each dollar received, compared to $0.300 for those without the option.

When the jackpot level reaches $43.2 million, both tickets with and without the Power Play returns $0.493 for each dollar received. We refer to this $43.2 million as the Jackpot Breakeven level.

Above this breakeven level, tickets purchased without Power Play return more to the players. When the jackpot grows to $90 million, $0.813 is returned to straight ticket holders compared to only $0.653 to those who bought the Power Play.


Players should purchase Lottery Tickets like they would any other investment, and always seek the highest return on their dollars. Thus, when the Powerball jackpot is below $43.2 million, the Power Play should be purchased. When the jackpot is above this level, never purchase the Power Play. Go for the Jackpot instead.

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Hot Lotto Sizzler
When a player buys the Sizzler option, any prize that the player wins, except the Jackpot, will be multiplied by a fixed 3 times.

Given this, the graph below illustrates both the expected Sizzler return (in blue) against the expected return of a single Ticket without the Sizzler (in red).

When the jackpot is set to the minimum $1 million, Sizzler returns $0.401 of each dollar received, compared to $0.329 for those without the option.

When the jackpot level reaches $2.59 million, both tickets with and without Sizzler returns $0.474 of each dollar received. We refer to this $2.59 million as the Jackpot Breakeven level.

Above this breakeven level, tickets purchased without Sizzler return more to the players. When the jackpot grows to $5 million, $0.694 is returned to straight ticket holders compared to only $0.584 to those who bought the Sizzler.


Players should purchase Lottery Tickets like they would any other investment, and always seek the highest return on their dollars. Thus, when the Hot Lotto jackpot is below $2.59 million, the Sizzler should be purchased. When the jackpot is above this level, never purchase the Sizzler. Go for the Jackpot instead.

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Mega Millions Megaplier (available only in Texas)
When a player buys the Megaplier option, any prize that the player wins, except the Jackpot, will be multiplied by either 2, 3, or 4. The odds that any one of these multipliers will occur is not constant, but on the average, a player can expect an average 3.476 times multiplier.

Based on this assumption, the graph below illustrates both the expected Megaplier return (in blue) against the expected return of a single Ticket without the Megaplier (in red).

When the jackpot is set to the minimum $12 million, Megaplier returns $0.350 of each dollar received, compared to $0.250 for those without the option.

When the jackpot level reaches $47.2 million, both tickets with and without Megaplier returns $0.451 of each dollar received. We refer to this $47.2 million as the Jackpot Breakeven level.

Above this breakeven level, tickets purchased without Megaplier return more to the players. When the jackpot grows to $90 million, $0.694 is returned to straight ticket holders compared to only $0.523 to those who bought the Megaplier.



Players should purchase Lottery Tickets like they would any other investment, and always seek the highest return on their dollars. Thus, when the Mega Millions jackpot is below $47.2 million, the Megaplier should be purchased. When the jackpot is above this level, never purchase the Megaplier. Go for the Jackpot instead.

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Conclusion
As you can see, the decision to buy the Power Play, Sizzler, or Megaplier multiplier option is dependent upon the jackpot size. When the jackpot is below its breakeven level, players are encouraged to buy the multiplier option. But, when the jackpot is above its breakeven level, players should forego this option, and buy 2 straight tickets instead.


Learn More
To learn more about this subject, visit our in-depth pages that provide the detailed numbers behind each of these options.

• Powerball Power Play Analysis
• Hot Lotto Sizzler Analysis
• Mega Millions Megaplier Analysis

Focus for February: The Canadian Territories

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